The housing market in California slowed down substantially in 2023, as interest rates soared to a 23-year high and inventory was sluggish across the state. Home prices weren’t increasing like they did during the first few years of the pandemic, especially in the Bay Area, and in some places price growth even declined. But even amid a deceleration, the greater Bay Area region is still the most competitive place to buy a home in the state, according to data provided to SFGATE by real estate company Redfin.
Seven out of 10 of the top most competitive California cities to buy a home in were in the Bay Area, according to Redfin, drawing on data from January through November 2023. Data for December has not yet been finalized. Redfin analyzes days on the market, how many offers a home gets, how often contingencies are waived and the sale-to-list ratio to come up with a total score.
Mountain House, a small planned community in San Joaquin County that’s popular with those searching for affordability just outside the Bay Area, topped the list of the most competitive cities for home buying in California, with the average home selling for about 2% above the list price and accepting an offer in an average of nine days. In November 2023, 77.8% of homes in Mountain House sold for over asking when compared with 15.4% at the same time in 2022.
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Newark and San Leandro took the second and third spots on the list, followed by Sunnyvale, Cupertino, San Lorenzo and Santa Clara respectively.
The least competitive city was Laguna Beach, then Joshua Tree, then Idyllwild-Pine Cove.
BEST OF SFGATE
Housing prices in California in 2023 grew the fastest in Tustin, according to Redfin data. Prices were up 11.7% year over year in the Orange County town south of Anaheim, with a median home price of $1 million. The second most dramatic price growth of the year was in the small city of Coachella, the easternmost city in the Coachella Valley known for hosting the yearly music festival, which saw an 11.5% increase in home prices.
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Chowchilla, northwest of Fresno, had an 11.3% increase in 2023. The town, which houses two state prisons, has a median price of $409,261.
Prices grew the slowest in Malibu, Live Oak and Beverly Hills. Berkeley, Albany, Burlingame, Lafayette, Millbrae and Alameda took the fifth through 10th spots of slowest price growth in the state, respectively.
While the Bay Area exodus appears to be over, it’s still the region people are least interested in moving to in the state, Redfin searches show. Los Angeles is second to San Francisco, while Sacramento is the metro region that has the highest migration interest in the state, followed by Bakersfield.
The trend of California residents moving inland isn’t going to slow down anytime soon, said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. People’s appetite for more space and better affordability grew during the pandemic, she said, and Fresno and Bakersfield in particular could see even more gains in 2024. “I think of migration as a cascade and the Bay Area is at the top of affordability. There’s nothing feeding it,” Fairweather said. “Fresno and Bakersfield are a good value right now.”
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