Bitcoin (BTC) is headed for a long-term support retest, data suggests, after BTC price action fell into the August monthly close.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC price: Roads point to $23,000

Reversing gains seen last week, BTC/USD is back below $26,000 as of Sep. 1, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

Market participants had seen cause for bullishness into the close, with Bitcoin holding a key long-term trendline and preserving $27,000.

A decision by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to delay a slew of Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications forced a rethink, with Bitcoin shedding $1,000 over just two hourly candles.

Now, observers are concerned that even current levels may fail to hold the market up for long.

“On-chain data suggests that $BTC lacks strong support below the $25,400 mark,” popular trader Ali told X (formerly Twitter) subscribers.

“If BTC breaks below this threshold, it could swiftly correct down to $23,340.”
UTXO realized price distribution (URPD) annotated chart. Source: Ali/X

Ali uploaded a chart of the UTXO realized price distribution (URPD) metric from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.

This tracks the price at which the current set of transaction outputs was created and functions as a roadmap for likely price support and resistance levels.

A breakdown to $23,000 would not come as a surprise to some, with that target already on the radar for various traders and analysts.

Bitcoin inches toward key support battleground

Continuing, on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators delivered a similarly grim picture for BTC/USD on daily (D), weekly (W) and even monthly (M) timeframes.

Related: Bitcoin metric with ‘100% long hit rate’ predicts $23K BTC price floor

Using signals from one of its proprietary trading tools, Trend Precognition, Material Indicators advised that $24,750 needed to hold for bulls to have a chance at clinching a rebound.

“If price moves and holds below $25,350 the W signal will invalidate, however, if support holds above the LL at $24,750 there will be a good foundation to rally from and retest resistance,” part of X commentary explained.

“We will look to the Monthly candle open for a signal from the Trend Precognition algos to gain insight to whether we can expect an extension of the downtrend or a monthly momentum shift to the upside.”
BTC/USD 1-month chart with Trend Precognition signals. Source: Material Indicators/X

Data from CoinGlass meanwhile showed Aug. 31 sparking the largest volume of BTC long liquidations since Bitcoin’s 10% dive earlier in the month. 

These came in at $41 million, with the cross-crypto total at $108 million — still far below the daily tally from two weeks prior.

Crypto liquidations chart (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

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