Cointelegraph’s Crypto Trading Secrets podcast has published Episode 6, covering an array of content that should pique the interest of cryptocurrency traders. This episode’s guest is Brian Krogsgard, also known as Ledgerstatus on Twitter. Krogsgard is a trader and one of the co-founders of Flip.xyz, a nonfungible token (NFT) platform. He is also a podcaster in the crypto space.
Among the questions fielded during the Feb. 16 recording, host Benjamin Pirus asked Krogsgard to give his opinion on what he thinks has most impacted the price of Bitcoin (BTC) over the past year. “Liquidity,” he responded.
“People just do not have spare liquidity for a multitude of reasons. They have counterparties that went bankrupt, and that might have forced them to lose money. They got coins stuck on places that went bankrupt. Lost access to them, lost in trading, lost because of taxes, whatever.”
“Those are all challenges for liquidity, and you need liquidity for the healthiest of markets, and so that’s been a challenge,” he added. Amid the runaway train that was the 2022 crypto bear market, the space saw significant turmoil. Several cryptocurrency companies failed, including the likes of crypto exchange giant FTX.
“I would actually say the problems go way before that with Bitcoin because we saw with FTX there was massive rehypothecation of Bitcoin,” Krogsgard continued. “Rehypothecation” is when entities use customers’ collateral for other activities, according to Investopedia. The collapse of FTX in November 2022 sparked numerous headlines, such as allegations of customer asset misuse by FTX and sister entity Alameda Research.
“So, the Bitcoin people thought they had on FTX was not there, and FTX was selling it to do other things. And that rehypothecation was actually a burden to Bitcoin’s price even in a bull market. And now that we have liquidity issues, it’s just been a consistent kind of drag on price and presented challenges for a year and then some.”
Krogsgard provided his thoughts and opinions on several other points during the episode and also chatted about his background.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Housingprices decelerated at the end of 2022 as high mortgage rates hurt affordability, a sign of a major turnaround in the market that would have significant consequences for the economy overall.
Prices rose 5.8% on the year in December, slower growth from the month before, when prices were up 7.6%, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. That 1.8 percentage point deceleration is notable for the index, which has been used as a gauge since 1987.
Home prices were down 4.4% from their peak in June.
“Prices have softened quickly, declining on a sustained basis in recent months," said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High-Frequency Economics. "An easing of prices pressures should be a positive for home sales. However, borrowing costs remain high and have weighed heavily on demand and affordability, which could continue to be a hurdle for buyers in the near term."
The down-throttling of prices comes as the Federal Reserve continues to hike its interest rate target aggressively in an attempt to slow demand in response to stickier-than-anticipated inflation. Housing is perhaps the sector most responsive to interest rate hikes, as mortgages rise in tandem.
Mortgage rates have been on the rise since the central bank began tightening and punched in at their highest level since 2001 in November and December but dipped slightly at the start of the year.
As of Tuesday, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.5%, according to Freddie Mac, up more than 3 percentage points from the year before. The rate on an average 15-year fixed-rate mortgage was 5.76%.
Last week, it was announced that the median price for a new home in January was lower than it was a year ago, marking the first annual decline since the pandemic. The median sales price for a new home was $427,500 in January, a decrease from the month before — and 0.7% lower than in January 2022. That marks the first such annual decrease since August 2020.
New home sales in January increased from the month before, rising 7.2% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000, according to a report Friday from the Census Bureau.
Most economists expect the price deceleration trend in the housing market to have some staying power.
“House price indices will likely continue to fall through the end of this year, but this housing correction will be milder and shorter-lived than the housing downturn that made the Great Recession so severe,” said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank. “Over time, the cooler housing market will show up in slower increases in shelter costs in the CPI and PCE inflation gauges, which will likely help to persuade the Fed to end interest rate hikes in mid-2023 and begin to reduce interest rates in 2024.”
Housing prices in overheated markets, primarily on the West Coast, are set to get crushed this year, according to a report released by researchers from Goldman Sachs last month. The researchers predict that housing prices in Austin will fall by more than 15% this year alone. Likewise, Phoenix, Denver, and Seattle will see home prices dropping more than 10% this year and falling in 2024, as will the California cities of San Diego and San Francisco, the report reads.
It is widely believed that the housing market is in a recession right now, although some expect the broader economy to fall into a recession in the coming months as the Fed hikes interest rates.
A survey conducted by the National Association for Business Economics and released Monday found that 58% of leading business economists predict a recession coming in the next 12 months.
Gold prices aimed cautiously higher on Monday after disappointing US durable goods orders data dented the US Dollar. Front-end Treasury yields aimed lower, hinting that markets cut back on hawkish Federal Reserve policy expectations. The resulting dip in the US Dollar and Treasury yields worked together to bolster anti-fiat gold prices.
This dynamic somewhat reversed course during Tuesday’s Asia-Pacific trading session. While the Nikkei 225 gapped higher at the open, sentiment struggled to continue the cautiously rosy lead from the Wall Street trading session. Japan’s benchmark stock index soon erased most gains heading into the close. The resulting risk aversion boosted the US Dollar, sending gold back lower.
Over the remaining 24 hours, the yellow metal will be eyeing the next round of US Conference Board Consumer Confidence data. A rise to 108.5 for February is expected, which is compared to last month’s 107.1 outcome. Broadly speaking, consumer confidence has been aiming cautiously higher since July 2022, reversing a year-long downtrend from the summer of 2021.
Looking at the Citi Economic Surprise Index tracking the US, the indicator is at 40.40. That represents the highest level since April 2022. Recent gains suggest that economists are being too pessimistic in offering data projections. This is opening the door to an upside surprise in consumer confidence later today. As such, gold is looking vulnerable if this outcome continues supporting a hawkish Fed.
XAU/USD Daily Chart
On the daily chart, gold’s near-term trajectory remains biased lower. Recently, a bearish Death Cross formed between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), offering a downside trajectory. Immediate support is the midpoint of the Fibonacci retracement level at 1787.33. Meanwhile, resistance is at the 38.2% point at 1828.01. In the event of a broader turn higher, the SMAs could kick in as resistance, maintaining the downward outlook.
Stubbornly high gas prices that have been crimping household budgets for months are starting to tumble. In some states like Texas, prices have fallen below $3 a gallon.
The national gas price average hit $3.33 a gallon on Monday, down more than 4 cents from a week ago, according to GasBuddy. AAA pegged the national average at $3.36 a gallon as of Monday, down a nickel from a week ago. Diesel fuel prices are also falling, hitting an average $4.38 a gallon this week, down nearly 8 cents from the previous week, GasBuddy said.
"Some nine out of 10 states saw declines over the last week, so the drops are showing up for most across the country, with the exception of the West Coast as the transition to summer blends continues, and in the Great Lakes, where prices cycled last week but have now resumed declining," Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a fuel price report.
Prices are dropping because the cost of crude oil per barrel has been tumbling — and that's starting to show at the gas pump, De Haan and other energy experts said. The price of crude oil hit below $80 per barrel on Monday, down $3 from a week ago, GasBuddy reported.
The drop in per barrel prices is noteworthy because the "higher or lower oil costs will play a major role in the price we pay when fueling up," AAA spokesperson Andrew Gross said Friday.
Nine states now have gas prices below $3 a gallon, according to GasBuddy.
Texas ($2.87)
Mississippi ($2.92)
Oklahoma ($2.93)
Louisiana ($2.96)
Arkansas ($2.97)
South Carolina ($2.97)
Kentucky ($2.98)
Tennessee ($2.98)
Alabama ($2.99)
The nation's highest gas prices are in:
Hawaii ($4.83)
California ($4.72)
Nevada ($4.20)
Washington ($4.14)
Colorado ($4.03)
Filling up the tank became a major pain point for Americans last year, with prices reaching an average $5.01 a gallon in June. Higher prices impacted some Americans' ability to travel for major holidays last year like Memorial Day. Fuel costs continued to fluctuate as the Russian-Ukraine war intensified and the U.S. restricted purchases of Russian energy products.
Elevated gas prices also helped oil companies — Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Exxon and Shell — post record profits last year, drawing criticism from the White House and environmentalists. The four companies saw $1 trillion in sales last year.
Gas prices have fallen slightly or remained flat for most of 2023, hovering around $3.50 a gallon. Inflation statistics — and how the Federal Reserve responds to them — will play a major role in how gas prices look this spring, De Haan said.
"For the weeks ahead, tradition tells us to expect prices to move up eventually, but that could be at least partially offset by inflationary data that continues to be hotter than expected, leading to anxiety that the Fed will boost interest rates and cooling the economy and oil demand considerably," he said.
Khristopher J. Brooks is a reporter for CBS MoneyWatch covering business, consumer and financial stories that range from economic inequality and housing issues to bankruptcies and the business of sports.
(Kitco News) - The gold market continues to benefit from solid technical buying as bargain hunters ignore stronger-than-expected U.S. housing market data.
The U.S. pending home sales index rose 8.1% in January, rising to 82.5, following a drop of 2.5% in December, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Monday. The consensus forecast called for an increase of 0.9%.
This is the second consecutive month the leading housing market report beat economists' expectations.
"Buyers responded to better affordability from falling mortgage rates in December and January," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
Economists pay close attention to the pending home sales numbers because the index is seen as a forward-looking barometer for the housing market. A lag of a month or two usually exists between a contract and a completed sale.
The better-than-expected housing market data is not having much impact on gold prices as investors bargain hunt in the marketplace after prices fell to a nine-week low overnight. April gold futures last traded at $1,825.50 an ounce, up 0.46% on the day.
While's January's data highlights a potential recovery in the U.S. housing market, the report noted that in the last 12 months, the index is down 24.1%.
Although the U.S. economy has shown resilient strength in the first month of the new year, the NAR is still looking for existing home sales to drop 11.1% in 2023 with an annual sales rate of 4.47 million units. At the same time, the housing sector is expected to recover in 2024, with sales expected to increase 17.7%.
"Home sales activity looks to be bottoming out in the first quarter of this year, before incremental improvements will occur," Yun said. "But an annual gain in home sales will not occur until 2024. Meanwhile, home prices will be steady in most parts of the country with a minor change in the national median home price."
Home prices in Northwest Arkansas were down slightly last month from record highs reached last year, according to data from Redfin.
Why it matters: Any relief from sky-high asking prices is welcome, especially as mortgage rates creep up, Axios' Brianna Crane writes.
By the numbers: NWA's median home sales price was $330,000 in January, up 10.8% from last year and down nearly 1% from December.
Inventory was up a whopping 157% compared to last January, but that figure reflects how tight the market was last year.
The number of houses up for sale in 2021 was 2,424, then dropped to 680 in 2022. There were 1,754 on the market last month.
Homes were on the market for a median of 31 days at the first of this year, up from 16 days last year.
Flashback: NWA home prices shot up nearly 27% to an average of $385,821 in the first half of 2022, compared with the same period in 2021, according to the Skyline Report.
Zoom out: Nationally, median home sales prices have risen 1.3% from one year ago.
The national median home sales price in January was $383,000.
As demand slows, homes sit on the market longer, which gives buyers a little more room to negotiate.
What’s next: Spring is typically marked by increased demand, more competition and higher home prices, so it stands to reason that prices will rise again soon.
The bottom line: We're starting to see a moderate market correction but home values aren't falling.
Netflix decreased its subscription costs in more than 100 territories over the past week or so as customers continue to contemplate which streaming services to keep amid price hikes. The amount that Netflix is lowering its prices varies from country to country.
“We can confirm that we are updating the pricing of our plans in certain countries,” a Netflix spokesperson told TechCrunch.
According to research and analytics firm Ampere Analysis, it’s estimated that the price drop affects more than 4% of Netflix’s subscriber base, which is over 10 million people. The firm noted that the price drop occurred in Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Egypt, Ecuador, Vietnam, Morocco, Croatia, Kenya and the Philippines, among others, with discounts for the basic tier ranging between 20% and 60%.
Netflix’s Twitter account in Malaysia announced the good news to local customers, tweeting, “Starting today, our Basic Plan in Malaysia is now RM28 per month for both new and existing members.” The plan used to cost RM35 per month.
Kali ni, dropping down is good news ✅ Starting today, our Basic Plan in Malaysia is now RM28 per month for both new and existing members. pic.twitter.com/lcqMpHDJW1
The move is slightly surprising given the current industry trend — but also, not really. Netflix has been under fire lately after rolling out password-sharing rules to Canada, New Zealand, Portugal and Spain. The changes will roll out to more countries in the coming months. This has sparked a waveof subscriber complaints across social media platforms. Netflix is the only streamer to charge its customers a fee for sharing their passwords. So, it’s possible that Netflix could be lowering prices to redeem itself.
Another potential reason for the price decrease is to fare against the competition. Paramount+, Apple TV+, Disney+ and Hulu are the most recent Netflix rivals to increase their subscription prices. Plus, Peacock recently removed its free tier as an option for new customers.
“We know members have never had more choices when it comes to entertainment,” a Netflix spokesperson told The Wall Street Journal. The spokesperson added that Netflix is committed to delivering an experience that exceeds expectations.
This isn’t the first time Netflix lowered the price of its service to win over subscribers. In 2021, the streamer made cuts to the subscription price in India, cutting each monthly subscription plan’s price by a minimum of 18% and up to 60.1%.
Updated 2/24/23 at 1:30 p.m. ET with statement from Netflix.
SHANGHAI/LONDON, Feb 27 (Reuters) - CATL (300750.SZ), the world's largest battery maker, has offered to cut costs for Chinese automakers, a move that demonstrates its market power and could also widen China's cost advantage in electric vehicles.
China's CATL has offered smaller domestic electric-vehicle makers discounted prices on batteries, according to four people with knowledge of the terms.
The discount offers included a clause that shocked the auto industry after a year of rising prices: a built-in assumption that prices of lithium carbonate, a key component in auto batteries, would more than halve, three of the people said.
The move shows CATL's cost advantage from its investments in lithium mining and refining, and its determination to knock back the challenge from smaller Chinese rivals such as CALB (3931.HK) and EVE Energy (300014.SZ) which have factories ramping up this year, analysts said.
"It's very much a market share game," said Caspar Rawles, chief data officer at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. "This is, I think, in part, a price war."
The offer to automakers, including Nio (9866.HK) and Geely's Zeekr unit, that was reported by Reuters earlier this month came with a catch: in exchange for the discount, the automakers would have to pledge most of their battery supply contracts to CATL, according to the three sources.
In some cases that share would be as high as 80% of their business for CATL, they said. The EV makers are still negotiating the offers with CATL, the people, who asked not to be named because the matter is private, said.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd - more widely known by its initials - is the dominant global supplier with a 37% share of the EV market. The company did not respond to a request for comment.
Nio did not respond to a request for comment. Zeekr declined to comment.
CATL has faced some pushback from Chinese automakers for its market dominance and pricing. It was not immediately clear how China's regulators would view CATL's offer of lower prices in exchange for a fixed share of future orders.
China's government cost and price regulatory agency said on Thursday its officials had visited CATL earlier this month and said it would "strengthen cooperation" with the company, without providing further details.
CATL's offer follows a downturn in lithium prices linked to a slowdown in EV sales in China, which accounted for two-thirds of all battery-powered cars sold in 2022.
For consumers, that could bring prices down after a year when manufacturers struggled with supply chains and rising prices for batteries, the largest single cost in an EV.
Tesla (TSLA.O), the global EV leader, slashed prices by up to 20% in early January globally.
END OF SUBSIDIES
Battery prices had been falling for more than a decade before turning higher in 2022. That began to reverse late last year in China.
"There's a price war going on. We've seen it some weeks ago at the vehicle level. We're now seeing it at the battery level," Eric Norris, president of Energy Storage at Albemarle Corp (ALB.N), the world's largest producer of lithium for EVs, told Reuters.
CATL, he said, was looking to try to take advantage of its integration "to cut prices to gain share".
Spot prices for lithium carbonate in China have dropped by about 30% since their peak last year, as inventories were sold down on concern the end of national EV subsidies in China would slow growth. That happened, as predicted, in January.
For CATL, the discount is a way to head off a bid by Chinese EV makers to seek alternatives.
Li Auto (2015.HK) has said it will use SVOLT batteries in its new L7 SUV. Xpeng (9868.HK) has developed a fast-charging battery with Sunwoda (300207.SZ). The company said last year that CATL was no longer its largest battery supplier.
In a move that would lessen its reliance on CATL, Nio is planning to build a new battery plant with annual capacity to produce enough to power about 400,000 long-range EVs, Reuters reported on Friday.
SVOLT, among CATL's smaller rivals, has also offered discounts on battery supplies, Chinese media have reported. SVOLT declined to comment and Reuters could not confirm those reports.
Electric vehicle demand in China has slowed, with the leading industry association predicting 35% growth in 2023, compared to 90% in 2022.
Outside China, CATL, which is building new battery plants in Germany and Hungary, is expanding rapidly and has deals to supply Ford Motor Co (F.N) and BMW (BMWG.DE). CATL batteries power Volkswagen's (VOWG_p.DE) I.D. series and Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y built in China. Nearly 40% of those Teslas were shipped to overseas markets in 2022.
Battery cell prices for EV makers rose about 24% last year, said Prabhakar Patil, a battery industry consultant based in Detroit. The CATL offer would represent a total discount of about 6% from prevailing prices in China, if an automaker used it to lock in half of planned purchases, according to an estimate by Changjiang Securities.
"The reductions that CATL is offering would help the Chinese EV industry," said James Frith, a principal at battery-tech focused venture capital group Volta Energy Technologies. "From the Chinese viewpoint, with China having the dominant electric vehicle market, they don't want to lose that momentum."
He added: "If some of those EVs with discounted batteries end up in Europe, it could cause trade tensions."
Reporting by Zhang Yan and Brenda Goh in Shanghai, Siyi Liu in Beijing, Nick Carey in London, Ernest Scheyder in Houston and Paul Lienert in Detroit; Editing by Kevin Krolicki and Muralikumar Anantharaman
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